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                                               THE CONUNDRUM FACING MYANMAR

                                                 THE CONSEQUENCES FACING INDIA

The article surveys the current situation in Myanmar, a nation at risk of disintegration amid a civil war that pits several ethnic regional armed militias and political parties against the military (Tatmadaw) regime. The author points out that the widening internal conflict, fostered by US and Western support for the insurgents, benefits China’s growing penetration of the country’s economy while posing a major challenge to India’s troubled
Northeasten border states.

                                                        RAMI NIRANJAN DESAI

What was meant to be a move by the military on 1 February 2021 to restore the integrity of the military-drafted Constitution in order to uphold the rule of law, three years since the coup, has come a full circle. The Tatmataw, that has viewed itself as the protector of national unity, is today dealing with the potential splitting of the country. With ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) launching attacks on military assets and democratic and ethnic forces battling to dislodge the junta, the growing complexity of issues in Myanmar is impacting India. With over 1643kms of porous land borders with the northeast region in India and transnational ethnic relations, the repercussions of the civil-war-like-situation in Myanmar extends far beyond causing a refugee crisis for India with grave consequences for states like Manipur in the northeastern region. However, India must also keep a close eye on the democratic National Unity Government ( NUG). Questions must be asked about the ability of the NUG to keep Myanmar and all its varied components and aspirations united. Without military experience and a unique Constitution, unlike anywhere else in the world, will a change in power centres prove to be as challenging as the situation seems today, especially with repercussion of the conflict looming large for India?